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| Keywords of this article:
machine tool
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| Issue date:23/04/2010 |
| Source:Adsale Machine-Building Website |
| Li Kai-fo, Consulting Editor |
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| 4 main market indicators of China machine tool market, 2009 (Monetary Unit - US$)(source: CMTBA website) |
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In 2009, the annual sales output value of machine tools was US$ 15.3 billion, which increased 7.6% year-on-year. On one hand, the annual export output value of machine tool was US$ 1.41 billion, which decreased 33.0% year-on-year. The main reason of the big slump is the drastic decrease in the global market demand. On the other hand, the annual import output value of machine tool downed over 20%. The recovery of machine tool market only recorded a 0.5% increase and the amount of the actual consumption reached US$ 19.79 billion, which was lag behind the macro-economic recovery.
After the macroeconomic situation of China and the industrial trend of the major machine tool users in 2010 have been observed and analyzed, a rough forecast about tendency of four major indexes of the machine tool market of China will be made in the following article.
Sales output value of machine tools
Under the background that the macroeconomic situation of China and the world in 2010 is better than last year, the major users of machine tools, including railway transportation facility manufacture, nuclear energy facility manufacture, aviation and aerospace and other industries, have built up the demand of purchasing machine tools and improving their equipment level, due to the encouragement of the good industrial development trend. The automobile industry will further increase the purchases on machine tools for the purpose of expanding their production capacity. It is expected that the investment of private electromechanical enterprises on machine tool equipment will be bigger than last year. These indicate an increase in the sales output value of machine tools this year.
However, it is a long progress before private electromechanical enterprises can start their equipment investment, and it is more difficult for those export-oriented enterprises to kick off their investment on equipment. The fact worthy of attention is that the accumulative order amount of the industry of machine tools and tools during January – November 2009 is below the level at the same period last year. This also suggests that the increase of the sales output value of machine tools this year will be limited. Upon estimation, the increase this year is approximately 8%-12% (this number may be a little higher if calculated in US dollar).
The growth points of output value are still from high-grade and medium NC machine tools and special machine tools, and the structure upgrade of market demand has become the significant trend. The production cycle of heavy-duty and large-scale machine tools is relatively long, the production and sales situation this year may be better, but new market demand (new orders) perhaps suffers variable.
Import amount of machine tools
The economy this year in China will rebound and become better, and the initiative of domestic enterprises of China to import machine tools from abroad will be lifted, Furthermore, the encouragement on importing high-grade machine tools from the national policies of China will undoubtedly stimulate the import of machine tools.
The situation is complex about the direct foreign investment in significant correlation with import amount of machine tools. On one hand, the investment amount this year will be higher than last year, on the other hand, the ratio of manufacture industry in the total amount of foreign investment is decreasing. In addition, the factors that influence machine tool import mentioned in the first paragraph of this article, for example, the import substitution effect of machine tools made in China, still exists this year. Generally, the import increase of machine tools of China this year will be changed from negative to positive, but the extent of the increase will not be significant, and the amount will go up to 6.3-6.8 billion (increasing 6.8 – 15.3 %) according to estimation.
Export amount of machine tools
The world economy will turn from negative to positive growth, and the global machine tool market will also be on the road to recovery in 2010. In addition, as the Free Trade Area Agreement between China and ASEAN became effective on January 1, 2010, the six old members of ASEAN have reduced their average customs duties for importing the products from China down to 0.6%, and the four new members to 5.6%. All of these bring opportunities for machine tool export of China. Nonetheless, the growth rate of the world economy this year will be limited (approximately 2.5%-3%) and unstable and thus will restrict the growth rate of export of machine tools of China. If no material adverse factor appears, the export amount of machine tools in 2010 will increase 5% - 15%, base on the low basis last year.
Consumption amount of machine tools
The economic status of China this year is better than last year, so the machine tool consumption amount of China this year should be higher than last year. In accordance with the forecast of the sales output value of China in 2010: import amount and export amount in the above, based on calculation, the growth on machine tool consumption amount of China in 2010 (unit: US dollar) will be slightly higher than 10%, and the actual amount may exceed US$ 21.5 billion, and will still keep ahead of other countries in the world.
The output value and consumption amount of machine tools in China for the year 2010 will increase moderately. It is very difficult in next years to recover to the growth speed before the financial crisis. If the fast development of machine tool industry and market of China during 2000 – 2007 before the crisis arises from quantitative expansion and qualitative improvement, the quantitative expansion will be the main factor. In other words, speed is more but height is less. The development of machine tool industry of China in the future will aim at improvement of quality, upgrade of industry so as to get rid of the medium and low-end position in the international indutrial division of labour now.
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| Copyright © Adsale Publishing Limited. Any party needs to reprint any part of the content should get the written approval from Adsale Publishing Ltd and quote the source "Chinamac Journal (CMJ)", Adsale Machine-Building Website - www.AdsaleCMJ.com. We reserve the right to take legal action against any party who reprints any part of this article without acknowledgement. For enquiry, please contact Editorial Department. |
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| Copyright © Adsale Publishing Limited. Any party needs to reprint any part of the content should get the written approval from Adsale Publishing Ltd and quote the source "Chinamac Journal (CMJ)", Adsale Machine-Building Website - www.AdsaleCMJ.com. We reserve the right to take legal action against any party who reprints any part of this article without acknowledgement. For enquiry, please contact Editorial Department. |
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